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ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT FLOYD IS NOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN EYE APPEARED BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT PLACED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED AT THIS TIME...THE MSLP REPORTED BY DROPSONDE WAS 977 MB...12 MB LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE MOST RECENT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED ANOTHER MB OR TWO. IN MANY STORMS PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDE WIND INCREASES...AND WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO CATCH UP TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE SOON. THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS FLOYD TO CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS. THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE. A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS 310/10. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE AVN SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES LIFTING OUT...WITH STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING PACKAGE...ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET. FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 20.5N 60.0W 70 KTS 12HR VT 11/0600Z 21.5N 61.2W 80 KTS 24HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 62.8W 85 KTS 36HR VT 12/0600Z 23.4N 64.7W 90 KTS 48HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 67.0W 95 KTS 72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 71.5W 105 KTS NNNN