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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER
THIS MORNING REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY MAY BE LEVELING OFF SOMEWHAT.  PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 107 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 100 KT.  SINCE DATA FROM A SINGLE
DROPSONDE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND...I AM
WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING FLOYD A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WATER-
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE
WEST OF FLOYD.  THESE FEATURES MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
BRINGS FLOYD TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HRS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09...JUST A BIT TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE FUTURE MOTION OF FLOYD DEPENDS ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN EARLIER...WITH THE LBAR AND GFDL SHOWING LESS OF A
WESTWARD TURN.  THE FIVE DAY GFDL TURNS THE HURRICANE TO THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING FLOYD TO THE CAROLINAS IN FIVE DAYS.  THE MRF
LAST NIGHT...ON THE OTHER HAND...TAKES FLOYD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. 
THIS ILLUSTRATES THE DIFFICULTY OF SPECIFYING LANDFALL BEYOND THREE
DAYS TIME.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 22.2N  62.4W    95 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  63.6W    95 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 23.7N  65.4W    95 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 24.5N  67.7W    95 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  70.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  74.5W   105 KTS
 
 
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