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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999

AS EXPECTED...FLOYD IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...AND
CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INNER CORE ARE DISRUPTED. 
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF AT 967 MB AND MAX WINDS REMAIN 95
KNOTS OR MAYBE LOWER AT THIS TIME.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE FLOYD IS INTERACTING
WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS... PRIMARILY THE
AVN...ARE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENTHENING.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL...WHICH
IN FACT LOWER THE PRESSURE TO ABOUT 920 MB.

FIXES FROM THE RECON EARLIER TODAY...INDICATE A SHORT TERM WESTERLY
TRACK...BUT OVERALL..THE LONGER TREND MOTION HAS BEEN 285/10. 
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...AND THEY ARE EVEN
MORE TIGHTLY-PACKED AND...ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY...MOVE THE HURRICANE ON
A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK.  THESE MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TO
A POSITION DANGEROULSY CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE. 

THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM OTHER LONGER RANGE MODELS...UK AND
NOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE
NORTH ON A TRACK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.   

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 22.7N  64.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 22.9N  66.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  68.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  70.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  73.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  78.5W   110 KTS
 
 
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