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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 95 KT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AS
FLOYD HAS INTERACTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING 
AND FLOYD MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING.  NCEP GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND FORECAST
BRINGS FLOYD TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 12 HRS.

THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE LAST 6 HRS OR SO...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
275/11. THE SYNOPTIC DATA GATHERED BY THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HRS.  AFTER 24 HRS...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE. ALL OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL WEST...
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HRS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS
SOME SCATTER WITH NOGAPS THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WHILE
THE AVIATION BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN PALM
BEACH AND DAYTONA BEACH....AS DOES BAMD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
THE HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. 
 
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...UKMET AND
NOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE
NORTH ON A TRACK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 22.8N  65.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 22.9N  67.6W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 23.4N  70.1W   100 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W   105 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 27.5N  79.5W   110 KTS
 
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