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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING
REPORTED A MINIMUM  CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND OF 105
KT...MAKING FLOYD A CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT FLOYD NOW HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR LIE
AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.   

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO HAVE
COMPLETED A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/10...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE U.S.
APPROACHES.  THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST IN 72 HOURS...BUT WHETHER FLOYD WILL BE
MOVING WESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH...NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.  BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NO WATCHES FOR THE U.S.
COAST ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED TODAY.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...UKMET AND NOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE  NORTH ON A TRACK
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ALL INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 23.0N  66.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  68.1W   110 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 23.7N  70.8W   115 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  73.5W   120 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  76.0W   120 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 28.5N  80.5W   120 KTS
 
 
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