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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999
 
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB.  BASED ON THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
AT 700 MB AND DROPSONDE DATA THE MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE SURFACE WINDS
ARE INCREASED TO 125 KT.  THIS MAKES FLOYD A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.  TAFB AND SAB HAVE T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 AND SUPPORT THE 125
KNOT MEASURED VALUES.

FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE JUST-COMPLETED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
WITH THE NOAA JET.  THESE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 33 N 71 W AT THIS TIME.  THEREFORE...FLOYD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER IT PASSES THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE BAM MODELS TRACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL TURN THE
SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND INDICATE LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS IN 72 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE BAM GUIDANCE
WHICH HAVE DONE WELL FOR THIS HURRICANE THUS FAR...THE FORECAST IS
NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY TOMORROW.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 23.6N  69.3W   125 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 24.1N  71.3W   130 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 24.8N  73.8W   135 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 25.9N  76.3W   135 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N  78.3W   130 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 30.5N  81.0W   125 KTS
 
 
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