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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF FLOYD AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A
LITTLE FASTER AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE OR IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE HURRICANE
OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  HOWEVER SINCE FLOYD IS FORECAST TO MOVE
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AS PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE DADE
COUNTY FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO REQUIRES THAT THE
HURRICANE WATCH BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA.
 
RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND GPS DROPS IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT 135
KNOTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND.  THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE
PRESSURE IS 921 MB WHICH CORRELATES WITH 140 KNOTS...AND THE
HURRICANE COULD EVEN GET A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  HOWEVER 135 KNOTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES
ATTENTION.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 24.1N  72.1W   135 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  74.0W   135 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W   135 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 27.3N  78.8W   135 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 29.6N  80.3W   135 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  80.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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