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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 280/14.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...EXCEPT THE SHALLOW AND
MEDIUM BAM MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE SEEN SOME
EVIDENCE OF THE TURN IN THE INITIAL MOTION BY NOW.  SINCE THIS IS
NOT THE CASE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A LITTLE
LEFT OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT OF THE NOGAPS. 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AS THE FORECAST TRACK COMES WITHIN 90 MILES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
IN 24 HOURS AND LESS THAN 50 MILES FROM NORTH FLORIDA IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS.  
 
THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB AND A DROP IN THE
NORTHWEST EYEWALL SHOWED 145 KNOTS ABOUT 50 MB ABOVE THE SURFACE.
SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...135 KNOTS UNTIL
LANDFALL.  OF COURSE...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 24.2N  73.7W   135 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 24.6N  75.9W   135 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 26.2N  78.3W   135 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.4N  79.9W   135 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 30.9N  80.5W   135 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  79.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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