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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999
 
LAST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE CHANGING
LITTLE SO INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ABOUT STEADY.  FLOYD HAS A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER ALL BY THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  A GPS DROPWINDSONDE RECENTLY MEASURED 152 KNOTS
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE HURRICANE ENTERS A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
AFTER THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NOTED EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION
IS BACK TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.  SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED A
SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD WOBBLE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THE HEADING IS
BACK TO 280 DEGREES NOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN STATES
IS LIKELY TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN
STEERING FLOYD WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CREATE MORE OF A NORTHWARD
STEERING CURRENT...AND FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.   THIS WHAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY MOST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FOR SOME TIME NOW.  HOWEVER THE
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE COULD
COME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS WHY
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FROM DADE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE
GEORGIA BORDER.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 24.5N  74.7W   135 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 25.3N  76.9W   135 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W   135 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  80.5W   125 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 31.5N  80.5W   120 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 39.0N  79.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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