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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999
 
HAM RADIO REPORTS FROM THE ABACO ISLANDS INDICATE THE EYE OF FLOYD
HAS BEEN OVER THESE ISLANDS. PRESSURE DROPPED TO 929 MB WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS JUST BEFORE THE CALM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE.  

THE  HURRICANE IS MOVING 310/10...BASED ON RECON FIXES AND HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.   THE GENERAL STEERING WHICH IS
CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FLOYD IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING.  THERE IS NO REASON THEN TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  

THE PRIMARY AREA OF RISK CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST NORTHWARD.  THIS AREA MAY EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE...AND ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT
WOULD BRING THE EYEWALL TO THE COAST.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE BEYOND 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
THE HURRICANE IS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...AND THIS IS NORMALLY
OBSERVED..ESPECIALLY WHEN THE EYE INTERACTS WITH ISLANDS.  MAXIMUM
WINDS NOW ARE ABOUT 120 KNOTS  ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS...UP OR
DOWN...IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH...STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 26.5N  77.4W   120 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 27.3N  78.5W   120 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 29.3N  80.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  80.0W   120 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  78.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     17/1800Z 43.0N  72.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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