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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/15.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO DOES
THIS AND IS JUST WEST OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  THE LANDFALL
POINT IS SHIFTED ABOUT 30 NMI EAST.  THIS REDUCES THE THREAT TO
SOUTH CAROLINA A LITTLE AND INCREASES THE THREAT TO NORTH CAROLIN
AND WELL AS REQUIRING THAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NOW 949 MB...HAVING RISED 17 MB IN 24 HOURS.  THE WIND SPEED IS NOW
DOWN TO 100 KNOTS...THE LOWER END OF A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  WITH THE HURRICANE OVER THE WARM GULF
STREAM...THE WIND SPEED COULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME UNTIL
LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 31.3N  79.0W   100 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 33.9N  78.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 36.5N  77.1W    70 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     17/0600Z 39.4N  75.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/1800Z 42.5N  71.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

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