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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

RECENT CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE...AND MOTION IS NOW 020/16.  FLOYD IS BEGINNING TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THIS TAKES THE
CENTER INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.   ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THIS EXACT TRACK BECAUSE...(A)
FLOYD HAS A LARGE CORE OF STRONG WINDS...AND (B) ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES
IN HEADING COULD MAKE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL POINT.

LATEST SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM A NEW INSTRUMENT...THE STEPPED-
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SUGGEST THAT FLOYD IS STILL NEAR
THE BOTTOM END OF CAT. 3 STATUS.  SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  

RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A MESOCYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE EYE...AND SUCH FEATURES CAN PRODUCE LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE WINDS.   

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 32.9N  78.3W   100 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 35.3N  77.0W    85 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     17/0000Z 38.5N  75.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 41.5N  71.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  65.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0000Z 49.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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