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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
 
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WAS INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AT 12Z MOVING 025/21.  AT 15Z THE CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING BACK OVER
WATER NEAR NORFOLK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...MOVING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S COAST AND THEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE
OF...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND REPORTED AT 12Z WAS 67 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT
DIAMOND SHOALS C-MAN...WHICH REDUCES TO 57 KNOTS AT 10 METERS.  THE
WAKEFIELD DOPPLER DOPPLER WINDS ARE 64 TO 75 KNOTS AT 2000 FT.  SO
THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS AT 15Z AND FLOYD
IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH 60 KNOTS IN 12
HOURS.  THIS IS BASED ON FOLLOWING THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. 
MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OR RIGHT ON THE COAST...BUT NOT VERY FAR
INLAND...IF AT ALL.  EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL NOT
BE CHANGED AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY
FORECASTING.
 
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME POOR AND
ONLY THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 36.8N  76.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  73.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 43.5N  68.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 46.5N  61.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/1200Z 51.0N  37.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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