HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
CORRECTION...TROPICAL STORM FLOYD...NOT SUBTROPICAL
 
AN AIR FORCE RECON PLANE FIXED THE CENTER ON THE COAST AT THE MD/DEL
BORDER AT 1851Z.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION 0F 025/26 AND IS A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST CONTINIUES TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
 
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 70 TO 80 KNOTS AT 700 MB OVER THE
ATLANTIC...BUT A GPS DROP MEASURED ONLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.  THE LAST SURFACE EVIDENCE OF HURRICANE WINDS WAS THE DUCK
PIER C-MAN AT 14Z.  THERE ARE SOME DOPPLER RADAR WINDS OF HURRICANE
FORCE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE BELIEVED
TO BE MUCH LESS.  SO FLOYD IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 21Z
AND THE WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ARE ALSO DOWNGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
 
THE MAIN THREAT NOW SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY SERIOUS INLAND
FLOODING.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 39.3N  74.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 42.5N  71.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 45.4N  65.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/0600Z 48.5N  57.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1800Z 49.5N  48.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/1800Z 50.0N  35.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN