HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999

THE CENTER OF FLOYD IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING EITHER
RADAR DATA OR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
FLOYD HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 035/23 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS AN
INITIAL NORTHEAST MOTION FOLLOWED BY A EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AFTER 
12 HRS...WITH AN EASTWARD BEND BY 36 HRS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN 45N-50N.  THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT A TAD SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA SHOWS THAT FLOYD CONTINUES
ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND 
EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME
ELONGATED. FLOYD IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE NWS OFFICES IN UPTON NY AND TAUNTON MA
...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
MERRIMACK MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLOYD.  FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND 
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 43.5N  70.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 46.0N  67.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     18/0600Z 48.5N  61.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/1800Z 50.0N  51.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     19/0600Z 50.0N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/0600Z 49.0N  31.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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