HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS WELL
ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED ENOUGH TO
CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. IT IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING
ONE.  SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
BY 48 HOURS AND 83 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS. WITH THE GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  BEST
ESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  CONSEQUENTLY...TRACK
MODELS ARE CLOSELY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AROUND
THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 13.1N  28.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.2N  31.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.5N  34.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 13.8N  37.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N  40.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N  47.0W    80 KTS
 
 
NNNN