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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999 METEOSAT-7 SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL- ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND WITH NO OBVIOUS HINDRANCES...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LIKELY WITHIN 12 HRS...AND HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HRS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. THE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED AND IR IMAGERY ONLY ADDS TO THE DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING IT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT CLUSTERING AROUND THIS HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHOWS THIS MOTION...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.3N 30.1W 30 KTS 12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.4N 32.5W 40 KTS 24HR VT 13/0600Z 13.6N 35.9W 50 KTS 36HR VT 13/1800Z 13.8N 38.9W 60 KTS 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.0N 42.0W 70 KTS 72HR VT 15/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 80 KTS NNNN