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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH HOOKING BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...GERT IS BEING UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME...THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. SHIPS...BRINGS GERT TO 96 KNOTS WHILE THE GFDL LOWER THE PRESSURE TO NEAR 940 MB BY 72 HOURS. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY TRENDS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GERT TO 100 KNOTS IN 3 DAYS. GERT IS MOVING ABOUT 280/17. THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND EVEN STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS..INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH MOVES GERT SOUTH OF DUE WEST. LONGER RANGE MODELS PUT THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THESE FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.1N 40.1W 65 KTS 12HR VT 14/0000Z 16.5N 42.7W 70 KTS 24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 45.5W 75 KTS 36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 48.5W 85 KTS 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 95 KTS 72HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 100 KTS NNNN