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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999 SATELLITE LOOPS DURING THE EVENING SHOWED A BURSTING PATTERN BEGINNING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE WITH THE CIRRUS SPREADING OUT OVER THE EYE...OBSCURING IT. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...4.5 FROM BOTH MIAMI AND SAB. THEREFORE..THE WINDS REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS. SHIPS...NOW SEES A SOMEWHAT MORE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AND NOW INTENSIFIES GERT TO ONLY 99 KNOTS. SINCE THE GFDL MODEL STILL WANTS TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO OVER 100 KNOTS THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BECAUSE OF THE BURSTING PATTERN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/14. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.3N 42.7W 75 KTS 12HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 44.9W 85 KTS 24HR VT 15/0000Z 17.1N 47.9W 90 KTS 36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 51.1W 95 KTS 48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.9N 53.9W 100 KTS 72HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 59.0W 105 KTS NNNN