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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF GERT AND FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB/941 MB AND 25 N MI WIDE EYE.   A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL MEASURED MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 110
KNOTS AND PEAK WINDS OF 138 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT
EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  WINDS ARE 115 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GERT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
...CONSEQUENTLY IT IS TURNING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN SUGGESTING THIS MOTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THESE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.  ON THIS
TRACK...GERT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...ONLY BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE PATH OF GERT.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 18.8N  53.9W   115 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.4N  55.1W   115 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  58.5W   115 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  60.0W   115 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  62.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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