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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999
 
GERT CONTINUES TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE.  SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE DVORAK-
SCALE.  THE OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST
...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE UPPER-LEVEL MID
OCEANIC TROUGH.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED AND
GERT SHOULD REMAIN AS A SEVERE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/09. THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN COULD BE DELAYED
AND INSTEAD IS FORECAST TO BE MORE GRADUAL.  EVEN THE UK MODEL...HAS
THE TURN A FEW DEGREES FARTHER TO THE WEST.  THE AVN WAS THE FIRST
MODEL TO SUGGEST THIS TURN.  THIS CHANGE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...
INCREASES THE THREAT TO BERMUDA IN THE LONG RANGE. 

AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 20.2N  56.3W   120 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.9N  57.3W   120 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  58.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N  60.0W   115 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N  61.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 27.0N  65.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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