HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999
 
THE CLOUD THE PATTERN IS SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING...MAINLY
REFLECTED IN THE OUTFLOW WHICH IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. THIS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY WHILE THE HURRICANE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-
OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS WEST.  SATELLITE WIND
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0 ON
THE DVORAK-SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY  
BUT...IN GENERAL...A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  NEVERTHELESS...GERT
SHOULD REMAIN AS A STRONG HURRICANE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 305/09.  LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED IN EARLIER RUNS COULD BE
DELAYED AND INSTEAD IS FORECAST TO BE MORE GRADUAL AND FARTHER TO
THE WEST.  LBAR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TURNING THE HURRICANE MORE TO
THE LEFT BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND...ALTHOUGH SMALL...INCREASES THE THREAT TO BERMUDA IN
THE LONG RANGE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 20.5N  56.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 21.2N  58.0W   110 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  59.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N  60.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 25.5N  62.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N  65.5W   105 KTS
 
 
NNNN