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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
 
SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT...BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT COMES BACK LATER TODAY.  THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS ORGANIZED AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE
DECREASING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND COOLER SST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/08.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH.  MODELS VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48
HOURS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND MOVES
THE HURRICANE JUST EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE EXTEND ABOUT 90 N
MI.  THEREFORE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS
TIME.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 27.9N  62.3W   105 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.1N  63.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 31.1N  63.4W    95 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 33.0N  63.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  61.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 44.5N  53.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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