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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999 CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT GERT IS ACQUIRING A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING. GERT IS NEARING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WARNINGS THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GUIDANCE. GERT SHOULD BE AT FAIRLY HIGH LATITUDES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. LATEST AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS WEAKENING. A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG CYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO SPIN DOWN. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 31.7N 62.5W 95 KTS 12HR VT 22/0000Z 33.8N 62.0W 90 KTS 24HR VT 22/1200Z 36.5N 61.0W 85 KTS 36HR VT 23/0000Z 40.0N 58.5W 75 KTS 48HR VT 23/1200Z 45.0N 54.5W 65 KTS 72HR VT 24/1200Z 56.0N 46.0W 50 KTS NNNN