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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
 
SATELLITE WINDS ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT GERT IS BARELY A HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUOY 41505...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE EYE OF GERT...REPORTED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967.9 MB AS GERT PASSED NEARBY.  THEREFORE
WINDS ARE KEPT AT 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
INDICATED AND GERT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 020/24.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL
TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK GERT SHOULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO AVALON PENINSULA NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
GUIDANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 39.5N  58.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 42.9N  57.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 48.0N  51.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 51.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     24/1200Z 52.5N  39.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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