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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT GERT IS BARELY A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE WINDS AT 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GERT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS 030/24. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK GERT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO AVALON PENINSULA NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 41.3N 57.0W 75 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 44.2N 54.5W 70 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 48.5N 49.0W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0600Z 51.5N 410.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN