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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
 
AT 00Z THE CANADIAN BUOY 44141 REPORTED WITH A 966.2 MB PRESSURE
...WINDS 200/23 KT...AND SEAS OF 45 FT...INDICATING THAT THE CENTER
OF GERT PASSED JUST TO ITS WEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/26 KT.
GERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S..  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER GERT ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS TRACK BRINGS GERT JUST EAST OF THE
AVALON PENINSULA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 

THE LAST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION 
IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW
DRY POCKET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS GERT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION   
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HRS.

THE 34-KNOT RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED 
BASED ON A REPORT FROM THE SHIP...SKOZ.
 
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE
MARITIME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... PLEASE REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CANADA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THANKS TO THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER FOR COORDINATION AND BUOY
DATA.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 43.7N  55.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 47.2N  52.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 51.5N  48.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     24/1200Z 56.0N  43.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     25/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL 
 
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