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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999 BUOY AND SHIP DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...NOT UNUSUAL IN A BROAD CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/06. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR FLORIDA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS. THE LBAR...BAMM...BAMD AND A98 TAKE THE CYCLONE ON THE TRACK SUGGESTED BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AVN LETS THE SYSTEM LINGER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAMS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NOGAPS HAS THE TROUGH MISSING THE SYSTEM AND THE TRAILING HIGH PUSHING THE IT SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS IMPROVING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT. A SHIP TOWING A BARGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION REPORTED AT 16Z THAT HE HAD WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1015MB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.1N 87.7W 30 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.0N 87.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 21/0000Z 28.5N 85.1W 45 KTS 48HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 50 KTS 72HR VT 22/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W 50 KTS NNNN