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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HAS CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. BASED ON THE EARLIER SHIP OB OF 1004 THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE 1003 MB. THE LATEST INITIAL POSITION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS EARLIER CALCULATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/03. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WHICH IS.. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. RECON SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 15 KTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER AND WILL PROBABLY PICK UP 25 TO 30 KTS ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE SIMILAR TO THE SURFACE OBS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION. UNTIL THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THE STORM WATCHES MAY BE NOT BE REQUIRED UNTIL TOMORROW. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 26.1N 87.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 20/0600Z 26.6N 87.8W 35 KTS 24HR VT 20/1800Z 27.4N 86.8W 35 KTS 36HR VT 21/0600Z 28.1N 85.2W 40 KTS 48HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 45 KTS 72HR VT 22/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 45 KTS NNNN