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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999 RECON OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A SLIGHT PRESSURE FALL...TO 998 MB...BUT NO STRONGER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...SO FAR. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED-LOOKING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN MAKES HARVEY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD CENTER FIXES. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY... BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE ESTIMATE SHOWN IN THE 12Z INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. MY BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS 065/06. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN 24 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS/WATCHES AND A HURRICANE WATCH AS SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 27.1N 85.9W 45 KTS 12HR VT 21/0000Z 27.4N 85.0W 50 KTS 24HR VT 21/1200Z 27.9N 83.3W 60 KTS 36HR VT 22/0000Z 28.7N 81.0W 50 KTS 48HR VT 22/1200Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 23/1200Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KTS NNNN