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ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999 RECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS MOVING 080/9 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL MOTION. THE LAST RECON FIX ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT HARVEY MAYBE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST. THE APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 12 HRS WITH A NORTHEAST TURN THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING SPEED. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. THE STORM IS PROBABLY ALSO ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. DATA FROM THE DOPPLER RADAR IN TAMPA SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED BY 48 HRS... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP REPORT AND WIND ANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO BOCA RATON. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BOCA RATON TO FLORIDA CITY. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 27.1N 84.2W 50 KTS 12HR VT 21/1200Z 27.3N 82.0W 55 KTS 24HR VT 22/0000Z 28.4N 78.7W 55 KTS 36HR VT 22/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 55 KTS 48HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 68.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0000Z 43.5N 59.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN