HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 04 1999

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN STRUCTURE.  ALTHOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB...THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...A PORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS HEADING TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INSTEAD OF TOWARD THE DEPRESSION.  WE ARE
KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT
ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN THE WINDS...WILL BRING IT TO STORM STATUS.
SHIPS MODEL MAKES IT A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BUT IT SEEMS
UNREALISTIC UNLESS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.  THEREFORE...ONLY A
SMALL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT IS INDICATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST VERY SLOW MOTION...
KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
 
AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 19.0N  93.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N  94.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  95.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  95.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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