HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 1999
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 33 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT.
 
THE RECON FIXES INDICATE A MOTION OF 310/3. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHILE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
THE 72 HOUR POSITION IS SLOWER THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE AVN AND
UKMET MODELS. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.
FIRST...SINCE RIDGING IS STILL DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE
CURRENT NORTHWEST DRIFT MAY NOT PERSIST AND THE CYCLONE MAY STALL.
SECOND...THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION INTO
THE MEXICAN COAST BEFORE IT CAN TURN NORTH.
 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS AN
ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS REMAIN ARE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND
MUCH OF THE WOULD BE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION FOR THE GULF
TROUGH. BY 48 HOURS THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER FROM THE COAST. BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO BASED
ON THE PREMISE THE THE CYCLONE WILL NOT FALL APART PRIOR TO 36
HOURS.
 
RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 19.7N  95.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.9N  95.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.4N  95.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.9N  95.9W    30 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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