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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999
 
THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON IR IMAGES.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE LATEST RECON EARLIER TONIGHT INDICATED THE
EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A 1004 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND I AM BEING GENEROUS.  
IT IS HARD TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING WITH THE PREVAILING PATTERN BUT
SHIPS AND SHIFOR SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION.  THIS COULD HAPPEN ONLY IF
THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVES
AWAY FROM LAND.  BY THEN...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM.  SINCE SHIPS IS THE ONLY RELIABLE GAME
IN TOWN...SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 48 HOURS. 

THE FORECAST TRACK IS EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BECAUSE MODELS ARE
DIVERGENT.  BOTH THE AVN AND UK GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE 500 MB HIGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION.  THEREFORE..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK. 
I AM NOT SURE IF THE DEPRESSION WILL LAST THAT LONG.
 
TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO.
 
AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 19.8N  95.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  95.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 20.2N  95.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  95.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  96.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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