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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 06 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.  THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDN...
AND AVIATION MODELS ALL SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION.  THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE MOTION RATHER
SLOW AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
STILL FASTER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH GOING ON IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION.
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF WHERE THE
POORLY DEFINED CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED AND A HINT OF
BANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS SO SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT NOT TO HURRICANE FORCE AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 15.7N  46.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.1N  47.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N  48.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 17.2N  48.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  49.8W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.8N  51.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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