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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 07 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS RELAXING...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS STRONGER THAN EARLIER
TODAY.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO A STRONG UPPER-LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.
IN ADDITION... THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL WAVE
APPRACHING FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DEPRESSION BY
INCREASING THE SHEAR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ALL AVAILABLE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS GOING TO DECREASE...AS THE UPPER-
LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD WHILE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE DEPRESSION
TO HURRICANE STATUS. I NORMALLY FOLLOW SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS SEASON. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...I DO
NOT SEE HOW SUCH A SHEARED DEPRESSION CAN RECOVER FROM THE
PREVAILING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED...IF THIS DEPRESSION DISSIPATES IN 24 HOUR OR SO.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/04. MODELS AND THE OFFCIAL FORECAST ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE AREA.
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 16.6N  47.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.9N  48.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  49.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N  51.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N  53.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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