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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 13 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...PLENTY OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES. T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  HOWEVER...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...45 TO 50 KNOTS...LIMITED TO AN AREA WITHIN A BAND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THERE
IS A WARM UPPER OCEANIC MIXED LAYER (FANCY FOR A WARM OCEAN) AHEAD
OF THE STORM.  THEREFORE...IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN 24 HOURS OR SO.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/8.  IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER...DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
THEREAFTER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE STEERING
FLOW AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN
WILL RESULT FROM A NEW TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  ON THIS TRACK...IRENE
SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BECOME A THREAT TO
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE UK AND THE GFDL.  NOGAPS KEEPS IRENE QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR WESTERN CUBA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. 
 
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM IRENE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 20.2N  83.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 21.2N  83.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.5N  83.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 24.5N  83.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 27.0N  83.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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