HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999
 
RADARS FROM CUBA AND KEY WEST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
IRENE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM AN OVERNIGHT FLIGHT
OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET.  THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE IRENE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT IRENE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A RECCONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE INTENSITY...65 KNOTS...IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IAMGERY.  THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  A NOAA P3 PLANE WILL CHECK THE WIND STRUCTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE LATER TODAY.  STRENTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY GFDL COUPLED MODEL.   

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 21.7N  83.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N  83.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 25.5N  83.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  83.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    70 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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