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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 14 1999
 
RADARS FROM CUBA AND KEY WEST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES...INDICATE THAT
IRENE MOVED TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...TAKING IRENE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE UNEXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF IRENE REQUIRES THE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WATCHES AND WARNING.

INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS...BUT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A
NOAA PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
THE STRENGTH OF IRENE.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS
AND THE TREND SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL COUPLED MODEL.   
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 22.9N  82.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.4N  82.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.0N  81.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 27.0N  81.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  81.3W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  80.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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