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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999

...CORRECT ARE TO WINDS IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH...
 
WSR-88D DATA FROM KEY WEST AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF IRENE RE-FORMED TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE CYCLONE RESUMED A NORTHWARD
MOTION. SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN AS COLD AS -89C...AND A RADAR
EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT 85 KT FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THESE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOCYCLONE IN AN OUTER BAND. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REMAIN AT 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT THE GUSTS WILL BE RAISED TO
85 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

ALTHOUGH IRENE IS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 360/8. THE HURRICANE IS IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO
PARTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IRENE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL QUITE CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH THE
RADAR EYE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...AND IRENE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
SHEARING...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE QUITE COLD AND THE NORTHWARD
MOTION MAY REDUCE THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...WHICH KEEPS IRENE
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IRENE
IS VERY ASYMMETRICAL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
 
BEVEN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 24.1N  82.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.1N  82.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.5N  82.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 28.2N  82.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/0600Z 30.5N  81.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  79.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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