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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
 
IN SPITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATED A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK...KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND...IRENE HAS CONTINUED MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK HEALTHY AS IT MOVES OVER THE FLAT
SWAMPY EVERGLADES AND...ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE INTO
THE ATLANTIC SOON...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY.
HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE...LIMITED TO THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
 
BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION SUITE
WHICH IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 26.4N  80.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 28.2N  80.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 30.0N  79.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 32.0N  79.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 35.0N  77.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  71.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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