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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999

WSR-88D DATA FROM MELBOURNE INDICATE THE IRREGULAR EYE OF IRENE IS
STRADDLING THE FLORIDA COAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF FT. PIERCE. THE
PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAY HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM...
AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SYSTEM HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT
DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS JUST REPORTED A 986 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 77 KT WINDS NORTH OF
THE CENTER AT 850 MB. ALSO...SHIP ELUB8 REPORTED 65 KT WINDS EAST OF
FT. LAUDERDALE AT 03Z. THUS... HURRICANE STATUS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/9...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A
NORTHWARD WOBBLE IS IN PROGRESS. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
IRENE SEEMS TO BE CAUSING THE LONG ANTICIPATED MORE NORTHERLY
MOTION. A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORMING NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...AND
THIS MAY BE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALLOWS THIS TRACK TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. FIRST...THE
LARGE CIRRUS PLUME EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE HURRICANE SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT. SECOND...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A NORTHERLY MOTION...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO
NEAR CHARLESTON SC BY 18/06Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A
DISTINCT LEFT BIAS DURING THIS STORM...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
BE SIMILAR...BUT A LITTLE EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
WITH THE CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION AND ANTICIPATED MOTION OVER THE
GULF STREAM...IRENE COULD INTENSIFY AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER OPEN
WATER. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT MORE NORTHWARD COULD ALSO RESULT IN
INCREASED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 36 AND 48 HR FORECASTS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IRENE AS A 65 KT HURRICANE
THROUGH 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS COULD OCCUR. IRENE
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND EXTENDING THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS.
 
BEVEN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 27.4N  80.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  79.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 30.9N  79.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.2N  78.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  76.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     19/0600Z 43.0N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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