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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
 
AFTER MOVING OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE IS A LITTLE
DISORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 986 MB
MINIMUM PRESSURE AND PEAK WINDS OF 85 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN
ADDITION...SHIP WFLG REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 68 KNOTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO 70 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT BECAUSE
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM...SOME INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE.
 
RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  ON THIS TRACK...IRENE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO AND NOT FAR
FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. WATCHES AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
IRENE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN THE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 28.2N  80.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 29.3N  79.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 31.8N  79.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  78.5W    70 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     18/1200Z 39.0N  71.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 50.0N  50.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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