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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRENE HAS A VERY LARGE EYE WITH MINIMAL
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE HIGHEST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND WAS 72 KNOTS.  THIS MORNING A SHIP REPORTED 68 KTS...AND THE
PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE DAY SO I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP
THE SURFACE ESTIMATE BELOW 70 KT.  THE MOST RECENT EXTRAPOLATED
ESTIMATE FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 982...BUT THESE ARE USUALLY TOO LOW
BY A COUPLE MB.  ALTHOUGH SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY...IRENE WILL PASS OVER SOME WARM WATER PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE VIGOROUS. 

THE MOTION OF IRENE DURING THE DAY HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND RESEMBLES A
TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATION...WITH THE MEAN MOTION ESTIMATED AT 000/9. 
AN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THIS PLACES A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE
COASTLINE UNDER THE RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS.  THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 28.8N  80.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 30.4N  79.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 32.6N  79.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  75.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 41.5N  68.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 54.0N  43.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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