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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
 
THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME VERY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THE LACK
OF ECHOES MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE PRECISE CENTER.  THERE IS
STILL A STRONG WIND CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION HAS
CAUSED A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  RECON DATA SHOW A
REDUCTION OF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE OF ABOUT 8 DEG C OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KNOTS AND NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL.  NONETHELESS...IRENE
WILL BE CROSSING A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY AND THIS
COULD REJUVENATE THE SYSTEM IF VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY.
 
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
ACCELERATION AS A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE FROM THE
WEST.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THUS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36
HOURS.
 
PASCH/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 29.9N  79.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.2N  79.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 34.5N  77.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     19/0000Z 42.0N  66.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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