HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
 
IRENE CONTINUES TO GENERATE JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN
MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS.   THE MOST RECENT PEAK WINDS FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WERE 68 KNOTS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET 
SAMPLED THE CONVECTIVE BURST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IRENE IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HEADING FOR IRENE...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SEEN ON SURFACE ANALYSES. A BROAD EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE
IS EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY WITH AN AXIS NEAR 70W.  AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE PATH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEFLECT TO THE RIGHT.  THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS AT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR
ANYWHERE IN THIS INTERVAL.  

RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN INCREASED...TO 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THESE RAINS ARE 
BE FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SERIOUS FLOODING.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 31.7N  79.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 33.2N  79.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  74.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     19/1200Z 47.0N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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