HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
 
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF
IRENE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN INTENSE BURST OF CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING WAS FOLLOWED BY A DROP IN MINIMUM PRESSURE...AN
IMPROVED RADAR DEPICTION AND A CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS.    THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS YET...AND THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION.
 
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STARTED TO
MAKE THE ANTICIPATED RIGHTWARD TURN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
040/12.  THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IF THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...THE
CENTER...AND ALL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 32.7N  78.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  77.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  72.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 40.5N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN