HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999
 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF IRENE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE CENTER BECOMING WELL DEFINED AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
COMPACT CENTER.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE RETURN OF MOIST AIR TO THE
CENTER OF THE STORM AS MEASURED BY AIR FORCE RECON.  DEW POINTS AT
850 MB ARE NOW 20C...ABOUT 10C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE HAS ALSO DECREASED TO 973 MB.  HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER.
 
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED THE
NORTHEAST MOTION AND IS ACCELERATING.  INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. 
THIS MOTION LESSENS THE THREAT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND IS
THE REASON FOR DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.  TRACK
GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 33.8N  76.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 36.1N  73.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 40.3N  64.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN