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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
BIG SURPRISE! AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT
WIND CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF IRENE. 850 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 114 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
129 KT WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 902 MB ON AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 958 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE. 

IRENE HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 055/30. THERE IS LITTLE TO SAY WITH REGARDS TO TRACK
OR INTENSITY. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...WHILE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED FOR THE EXPECTED
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN COORDINATION WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION
CENTER.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 35.6N  73.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 38.1N  68.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 41.5N  59.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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