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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
THE STRUCTURE OF JOSE IS IMPROVING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE IR ARE NOT
WELL ORGANIZED YET.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND
SAB WERE BOTH 35 KT.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE.   BASED ON THE VISIBLE ANIMATION AND THE FORECAST FOR
STRENGTHENING TODAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...AND BRINGS
JOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/9.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS ROUGHLY
HALFWAY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM BAM AND CLIPER.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW JOSE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF A BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION... WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LONGER TERM...THERE IS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH TURN JOSE BACK TOWARD THE
WEST...AND THE GFDL RUN OFF THE NAVY NOGAPS FIELDS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THE BEGINNING OF A RECURAVATURE TRACK.  IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL
WHETHER JOSE POSES A THREAT TO THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE JOSE THIS AFTERNOON.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
BARBADOS...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 10.7N  54.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 11.0N  55.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 11.8N  57.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 12.6N  59.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 14.0N  61.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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